BUDD: Everyone said the U.S. election last November was too close to call, but the American networks just couldn't resist calling it anyway. This week their blunders are coming back to haunt them, though. A congressional committee is holding hearings on how it all happened and what effect it may have had on the outcome of the vote.
BUDD: Ben Wattenberg appeared before the Committee yesterday. He was hired by CNN to investigate their miscalls on election night and he had a number of recommendations for how to prevent those from happening again. Mr. Wattenberg is a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute.
FINLAY: Mr. Wattenberg, what went wrong with the reporting of election results last November?
WATTENBERG: Basically what happened is that the networks were in a hurry to call, and the systems they're using to call cannot stand that kind of speed test, that the systems, particularly the exit polling, which is based on the people who actually show up to vote, but it does not take into account the ever-growing proportions of voters who are voting by absentee or under early ballot procedures by mail. WATTENBERG: So it's a combination of bad technology pushed into a time trap that gets them to make some calls that are not wholly justified, and the part that really angers me is that they have been warned about this idea of early calling and how it can distort the process itself as opposed to reporting on the process, which is something I gather that our friends to the north have mastered a whole lot better than we have. FINLAY: Well, we'll get to that in a second - WATTENBERG: Okay. FINLAY: - if you like, but if we could focus on Florida, because that's where most of the focus - WATTENBERG: Sure. FINLAY: - has been, when you talk about the exit polls, you're talking about the voter news service that all the networks bought into - WATTENBERG: Exactly. FINLAY: - and used, right?
WATTENBERG: Yes.
FINLAY: And there were a couple of problems, weren't there? One was that the networks reported the results from Florida based on exit polls, but before the polls had even finished - had even all closed in the state.
WATTENBERG: That's correct. FINLAY: Was that just ignorance?
WATTENBERG: The trouble is the exit poll in Florida was terrible. It showed ultimately that Gore won by 7.6 per cent. Now, it turns out it was a dead-even race, so they were off by 7.5 points. Now, that's a dramatic error. But if that's the data that they were getting in, then they maintain, with some merit, that they were justified in calling it. WATTENBERG: My whole point is they shouldn't be calling elections. They shouldn't be projecting elections. I mean, it's a four-year cycle, there are 365 days in a year, 24 hours in a day. What we're saying is that for about two golden hours, from the time the polls close in a state until they close in the western time zones, just cool it. Lay off.
FINLAY: So you're suggesting now, to get back to the way - WATTENBERG: Yeah. FINLAY: - Canadians report elections, that no results should be reported until the polls across the country are closed?
WATTENBERG: Yeah.
My thought is this. Look, they've already agreed that they won't call a state with several time zones - FINLAY: M'hm. WATTENBERG: - like Florida until that entire jurisdiction is closed, - FINLAY: Right. WATTENBERG: - which makes sense. Okay.
So once you say that, you have to ask yourself Well, what is the jurisdiction for the presidential race? It's not a state. FINLAY: M'hm. WATTENBERG: It's a collection of 50 states. (Just for technical reasons, just let's rule out Alaska and Hawaii.) So it's 48 - the lower 48 - and that's the jurisdiction. So that means you'd have to delay for a couple of hours any east coast calling because - and if you don't use the exit polls as projections, it will slow down this plodding beast of this concatenation of network yo-yos and let the election proceed in peace. And then they can do all their spinning before and after, which is fine.
WATTENBERG: And my proposal to the committee yesterday was I thought a very simple one as to how to prevent them from calling without getting into First Amendment dictates from the Congress that oppressed - everybody's very nervous about that, - FINLAY: Yes. WATTENBERG: - and for good reason, is to say, Look, we're going to now have some federal monies going to the states to modernize their election machinery, which is fine. So what the Congress ought to do is condition that aid to say to Pennsylvania or Ohio, If you want our $40million for voting machines, that's fine. We're only putting one condition, which is don't release your presidential tally until California closes. FINLAY: Okay.
WATTENBERG: Now, that's not unreasonable. FINLAY: All right, but is that - WATTENBERG: And then the press - then nobody's dictating to the press to say You can't cover this, you can't cover that. The votes aren't available. FINLAY: The actual votes, - WATTENBERG: Yeah. FINLAY: - but then you're back to prediction, predictive calls. And that is up to the networks, I guess, and given the competitive situation here and the commercial pressures, I guess, which is what leads them to call elections before anything - WATTENBERG: Right. FINLAY: - is known, how do you get a handle on that?
WATTENBERG: Well, I think the way you get a handle on that is, look, they've seen what happens with exit polling. They know more than they ever knew before how dangerous and volatile and potentially misguided that is, and they've all made some resolutions not to use it either - in CNN's case, not to use it at all for projection purposes, or maybe in some of the others it's to certainly slow down the process, which means that they will have to start waiting for raw votes and actual votes to come in to make any projections. WATTENBERG: So if you delay - if on the one hand they are chastened because of this experience on the exit poll side and on the other hand you work out some system to slow down the release of actual votes, by the time they start trying to figure out what happened - I mean, look, if Ohio or Pennsylvania, two very close states, do not release their vote totals until 11:00 p.m., - FINLAY: M'hm. WATTENBERG: - in a close race they just can't call it. FINLAY: You told the House yesterday that it was a kind of situation where there was like an arms race or some kind of race between the networks, and it was a question of stop me before I kill again. So you're suggesting the only way that this can be controlled is through controlling the release of the numbers at the states. WATTENBERG: Or the alternative, which I think is a little complicated and may not pass the Congress, is what they call a uniform poll closing, that all the states would have to - FINLAY: Right. WATTENBERG: - close their polls at the same time, but that disadvantages California.
FINLAY: Unless you vote over two days.
WATTENBERG: Yeah, but then you really set up a situation where the networks - if you have 24hour or 48-hour voting, then the networks sitting on this pile of election - of exit polls are really going to be tempted to start releasing them. So you've taken the window of vulnerability from two hours to 24 hours - FINLAY: Right. WATTENBERG: - and I barely trust these people for two hours. I don't trust them for 20 minutes, because as most of them admitted - they all said to us when we interviewed them, our CNN panel, they said, Oh, accuracy first, time (inaudible) second, and it's just hollow baloney. I mean, as some of them admitted, they said, Look, if you're in a room and you've got four competitors and they're all up on the board saying Gore carried Florida or Bush carried the United States, you start looking and you say, Now, why aren't we on the board? FINLAY: Yes.
WATTENBERG: So there is intense time competition, notwithstanding the fact that they want to be accurate. And the irony of this from a journalistic point of view is they really blew a great story, and the great story is it's too close to call. FINLAY: It's too close to call. WATTENBERG: I mean, that's a better story - FINLAY: Yeah. WATTENBERG: - than it went to Gore or it went to Bush, it went this, it went that. The great story is We're not going to be able to give you a result tonight. FINLAY: Yeah.
And that's what happened - WATTENBERG: Tune in to this very channel tomorrow morning. FINLAY: Thank you very much, Mr. Wattenberg.
WATTENBERG: Thank you.
BUDD: Ben Wattenberg spoke to us from Washington. He's a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. BUDD: You're listening to As It Happens, heard Monday through Friday on CBC Radio One, across the U.S. on member stations of Public Radio International, and around the world on the short-wave service of Radio Canada International, and on your computer. You can reach us by going to our website - cbc.ca/asithappens. You can hear us between 6:30 and 8:00 eastern time (that's the show we're doing at the very moment), or you can access a previous show by just clicking on the Previous Show. BUDD: Perhaps you've heard of the exodus of people from Saskatchewan to Alberta, but now a famous music hall may shuffle across the border, too, lock, stock and dance floor. The building is called Danceland, and it's one of the major attractions in the resort community ofManitou Beach, Saskatchewan. In fact, the landmark has been labelled one of the province's seven man-made wonders. BUDD: But now the owner wants to pack it up and move it to a community in Alberta. At least one local resident wants to pull the rug out from under that plan. We reached Arnold Struby at his home in Manitou Beach.
FINLAY: Mr. Struby, what's so special about this dance hall? STRUBY: Well, it's one in Canada like it. The dance floor is mounted on horse hair, and it was originally built in 1928, and it's known right across Canada as Danceland at Manitou Beach. It's got quite a good reputation and it's still going strong, and it's a big tourist attraction. FINLAY: It's mounted on horse hair? STRUBY: Yes.
FINLAY: That gives it some spring, does it?
STRUBY: It's not a nail floor. It gives when you dance. If you go out of step, it will automatically bounce you back into step.
FINLAY: You've done a turn or two on it yourself, - STRUBY: Oh, yes. FINLAY: - I bet.
STRUBY: Yes.
I've been there quite regular. FINLAY: How big is it?
STRUBY: Well, I would say it's about - the floor would be about 80 by 100, something like that, I think, and - well, I think it'll handle 450, 500 people. FINLAY: Wow. Now, is it still doing a good business or not? I mean, why does the owner want to move it?
STRUBY: Well, what he did, he listed it on the internet here a few years ago, or a year ago or so.
FINLAY: M'hm. STRUBY: And of course Alberta got very interested in it.
FINLAY: Yeah.
STRUBY: They have been here a few times, and they're willing to buy it and move it back to Alberta. FINLAY: Who in Alberta is looking at it?
STRUBY: Well, it was Lacombe, Alberta, that's been here inquiring about it, and I don't think there has been a deal finalized, - FINLAY: Yeah. STRUBY: - but the local community is getting quite concerned that we can't afford to lose an old landmark like that when it's attracting all these people. And Alberta is a big sponsor of Danceland. They know what it's all about. They know what Danceland is like, and they enjoy it, and they'd just like to have it. And of course they're very tough competition. FINLAY: What are you going to do about it?
STRUBY: Well, we're trying to organize a group here that might - and local interests of people in the community that might want to purchase it and set it up as a community project and see if we can keep it here. FINLAY: Yeah.
That would be like trying to keep your hockey team at home, I guess.
STRUBY: Well, that's about what it's all about, yes. FINLAY: It's a big thing for Manitou Beach, is it? STRUBY: It's a real big thing, and it would definitely be a blow if it would go. A new building wouldn't replace it. It's the heritage that's involved and the publicity it has been getting for all these years. Everybody knows Manitou Beach Danceland, and it's been a great attraction for us here. FINLAY: How much do you think it might cost to keep it?
STRUBY: Well, it's something I wouldn't want to disclose right now because we haven't negotiated an agreement and I don't think Lacombe has really negotiated an agreement either yet. But I would say it'd be in the neighbourhood of half a million. FINLAY: Whoa.
STRUBY: M'hm. FINLAY: That's pricy. STRUBY: It's pricy, yes, but it does generate a lot of revenue, and we've got a meeting organized here for Monday at 2:00, and we'll be discussing it and see what's possible. FINLAY: Any indication yet of how much support there might be to keep it?
STRUBY: Well, my telephone's been ringing all day today from all over the province, and even from Alberta. I've had phone calls asking about "That's not true." They've seen it in the local papers and I've had the Calgary Herald call me today wanting to get all the information. FINLAY: Yeah.
STRUBY: And people from all over the province, like Regina, Saskatoon, they do support Danceland to a great extent. There's lots of people coming out every weekend from the city. They buy memberships here and they don't miss too many weekend dances. FINLAY: Well, you'll have to figure out a way. Have you got - STRUBY: We have to do something here, yes. FINLAY: Have you got any special memories of the place yourself?
STRUBY: Oh, yes.
I can remember coming here to swing and sway with Sammy Kay and all the old bands years ago in the '40s and '50s. FINLAY: Yeah.
STRUBY: I've been here when there were some awfully good bands here, and it's just a reputation that has - the floor is what people like. FINLAY: Yeah.
STRUBY: And I think they like the surroundings around Danceland. We've got the spa here, the mineral spa, and we have the lake with the very unique water, compares real close to the Dead Sea. FINLAY: Really?
STRUBY: Oh, yes, the same ingredients more or less as the Dead Sea.
FINLAY: What, you can just float on top of it - STRUBY: Oh, you betcha you can. FINLAY: - on the salt?
STRUBY: You can lie on your back and read the paper if you feel like it, it's that buoyant, yes. FINLAY: When it's warm enough. STRUBY: Yeah, when it's warm enough. You wouldn't want to do it today. FINLAY: No, I don't think so. STRUBY: No.
FINLAY: You could lie on the ice and read the paper.
STRUBY: Well, that could maybe work, yes.
FINLAY: Well, good luck with your dance hall.
STRUBY: Okay. We're going to see what's going to happen and we're going to - it'll be an awful sad day if it would ever move from here. We're still living in hope so far. FINLAY: Okay, Mr. Struby.
STRUBY: Thank you.
FINLAY: Thank you. Bye.
STRUBY: Bye.
BUDD: Danceland is not only known across Canada, it's been heard of around the world now. Arnold Struby spoke from Manitou Beach, Saskatchewan.
BUDD: And now to go along with a story like this, how about a little Sammy Kay? Okay.
Here's "Swing and Sway Stomp" by Sammy and his orchestra. BUDD: Was ya swingin'? Was ya swayin'? That was the "Swing and Sway Stomp" by Sammy Kay and his orchestra.
